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3rd Down Conversions
Last week Prediction? Pain examined some of the offensive statistics between the 2010 team and the 2012 team. As he pointed out, there was not much difference between the two, and 2012's stats are actually a little better in conference games. The difference, however, is the rushing yardage. Basically Russell made up for Chris Relf's rushing yardage with his arm. That's okay in total offense and points scored, but in terms of converting 3rd downs, which sustain drives, gives your defense a breather and helps with field position, it really hurts..
Year | 3rd down conversion % | National rank | 3rd down % in SEC games | SEC rank |
2010 | 45.9 | 24th | 43.2 | 3rd |
2011 | 38.7 | 82nd | 37.3 | 6th |
2012 | 34.6 | 102nd | 29.7 | 13th |
3rd downs have gotten progressively worse for this offense. Why? Well, one reason is that we seem to want to throw a bubble screen or 2 yard pass on 3rd & 8, but here's another reason: we aren't putting ourselves in 3rd & short / 3rd & manageable situations. When you substitute a large portion of your offensive yardage with passing for rushing, then you naturally are going to put yourself into longer down and distances because of incomplete passes. Instead of gaining 4 yards on 1st down and 3 on 2nd down, we are gaining 0 on 1st down and 3 on 2nd down (as an example). Which are you more likely to convert: 3rd & 3 or 3rd & 7?
So far in 2013 things haven't been much better.
- vs. Oklahoma State: 2 of 16 (12.5%)
- vs. Alcorn State: 5 of 13 (38.5%)
SEC game | Rushes | Passes | Run/Pass | 3rd Down % |
Auburn - 2010 | 33 | 35 | 49/51 | 33.3% |
LSU - 2010 | 44 | 18 | 71/29 | 53.3% |
Georgia - 2010 | 43 | 15 | 74/26 | 53.8% |
Florida - 2010 | 49 | 9 | 84/16 | 42.9% |
Kentucky -2010 | 39 | 19 | 67/33 | 35.7% |
Alabama - 2010 | 49 | 23 | 68/32 | 50% |
Arkansas - 2010 | 70 | 30 | 70/30 | 45% |
Ole Miss - 2010 | 50 | 20 | 71/29 | 31.3% |
Auburn - 2011 | 63 | 34 | 65/35 | 55% |
LSU - 2011 | 34 | 25 | 57/43 | 42.9% |
Georgia - 2011 | 34 | 33 | 51/49 | 26.7% |
South Carolina - 2011 | 37 | 30 | 55/45 | 43.8% |
Kentucky - 2011 | 32 | 21 | 60/40 | 50% |
Alabama - 2011 | 29 | 30 | 49/51 | 18.8% |
Arkansas - 2011 | 32 | 31 | 51/49 | 31.5% |
Ole Miss - 2011 | 48 | 13 | 77/23 | 30.8% |
Auburn - 2012 | 36 | 29 | 55/45 | 10% |
Kentucky - 2012 | 39 | 39 | 50/50 | 55.6% |
Tennessee - 2012 | 41 | 39 | 51/49 | 28.6% |
Alabama - 2012 | 21 | 36 | 37/63 | 30.8% |
Texas A&M - 2012 | 27 | 30 | 47/53 | 20% |
LSU - 2012 | 24 | 39 | 38/62 | 30% |
Arkansas - 2012 | 36 | 34 | 51/49 | 41.7% |
Ole Miss - 2012 | 25 | 39 | 42/58 | 7.7% |