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Your Guide to SEC Spreads and Hating FPI, Week 4

The best matchups are evenly distributed throughout the day.

Missouri's near upset of Georgia summed up last week in the SEC.  The games were entertaining, but there were no big upsets.  During a postgame celebration a Georgia fan did destroy a window.  That window got what it deserved.  Anyway, last week's advanced stats results are below.  The record is cumulative, and the "locks" are only from the previous week.

Record Locks (4+ points from the spread)
FPI 32-7 3-2
S&P 30-9 1-2

They missed Ohio State's beatdown of Oklahoma, and Texas A&M's victory at Auburn.  I would like to humbly point out that I picked Texas A&M, which guarantees any team I pick this week is going to get destroyed.

Kent State at Alabama

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas Alabama 44
FPI Alabama 40
S&P Alabama 39

I agree with the advanced projections here.  Alabama just came off of a roller coaster game, and Saban usually has not covered the spread against these type of opponents.  Alabama could cover, but they probably won't.

Georgia at Mississippi

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UM 7
FPI UM 9
S&P UM 9

Georgia is the third best team the Rebels have played this month, which actually doesn't make them bad.  I am leaning towards Mississippi covering, but the spread is close enough to where I would stay away.

Florida at Tennessee

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UT 7
FPI UT 7
S&P UF 1

This is an interesting pick from S&P.  I expect Tennessee to finally end their losing streak against Florida, but after their struggles against Ohio and Appalachian State, I'm not expecting them to beat a decent team by more than a touchdown.  Keep in mind that Florida's starting QB and a guard will be out, while Tennessee will be missing a starting linebacker and cornerback.  If you know at lot more about the backups than the general population, you have the advantage in picking this game.

Mississippi State vs Massachusetts in Gillette Stadium

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas MSU 22
FPI MSU 24
S&P MSU 27

I have boycotted Gillette products this week in anticipation of this matchup.  Hopefully this game is not closely contested.

Vanderbilt at Western Kentucky

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas WKU 8
FPI WKU 3
S&P WKU 11

Despite some preseason predictions that were made, Vanderbilt is not going bowling this year.  Blame the offense.

LSU at Auburn

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas LSU 3
FPI Tie 0
S&P LSU 7

I am going to go against FPI here and predict this won't end in a tie.  Both teams have good defenses, and LSU is one of the teams that has benefited from this emergence of former Purdue quarterbacks in the last week, so I expect them to cover, even though you usually don't want to pick teams that are slightly favored to cover the spread.

South Carolina at Kentucky

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UK 2
FPI USC 4
S&P USC 5

I'm agreeing with the projection systems again.  If Kentucky loses this one, you can basically dump gas on Stoops's hot seat and light it on fire.

Arkansas vs Texas A&M in Arlington

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas TAMU 6
FPI TAMU 9
S&P TAMU 3

I expect Texas A&M to win, but this should be a one possession game.  Austin Allen appears to have played well for Arkansas.  I haven't actually gotten to watch either team play very much yet, so I'm staying out of this one.

The Bottom Line

USC wins as 2 point underdogs at Kentucky, LSU covers at Auburn, and Kent State covers against Alabama's backups..