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Your Guide to SEC Spreads and Hating FPI

In a bye week, the best games are actually not in the SEC.

SEC football has now become slightly easier to predict, now that LSU finally fired Les Miles.  While MSU did not have a very good record against him all time, MSU is no longer the most recent team to lose to Auburn while not allowing a touchdown.  On that note, it is time for predictions.

Record Last Weeks "Locks" (4+ points)
FPI 5-2-1 1-2
S&P 5-3 0-5

Yes, FPI predicted a tie in the LSU Auburn game.  Would Les Miles have been fired if they had somehow tied?  We will never know.  S&P obviously had a rough week in the SEC, but is about 52% on spreads for the year, so the 0-5 is misleading.

Florida at Vanderbilt

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UF 10
S&P UF 24

S&P appears to be as confident as it has all season in this one.  I could see it, but Vanderbilt's defense and Florida being without their starting quarterback again means that Vanderbilt has an outside shot at covering in this one.

Louisiana Monroe at Auburn

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas Auburn 33
FPI Auburn 35
S&P Auburn 26

I will hold off until weighing in on anything Auburn related until next week.

Tennessee at Georgia

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UT 4
S&P UT 11

This is probably the most entertaining SEC game of the week.  If Tennessee wins this, they should win the SEC East.  It feels like I'm putting too much weight on Georgia's loss last week, and I'm also breaking my rule of picking against the team that is a slight underdog at home again (didn't pay off with Auburn last week), but I'm picking Tennessee this week.

Texas A&M at South Carolina

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas TAMU 18

Texas A&M should continue their journey of being the darkhorse team of the year.  Sumlin turned things around quickly from last year.

Kentucky at Alabama

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas Alabama 35
FPI Alabama 32
S&P Alabama 34

Alabama's backup quarterback did withdraw from the school today, so if the starter gets hurt, the spread might get interesting.

Memphis at Mississippi

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UM 14
S&P UM 9

Paxton Lynch doesn't play for Memphis anymore, so I wouldn't expect an upset here.  Memphis did beat Bowling Green State 77-3 last week, so they shouldn't be having any confidence issues.

Missouri at LSU

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas LSU 13

Ed Orgeron has the opportunity to continue his 6-2 start at USC and go down as the best interim coach of all time.  He has to play Alabama and go to Texas A&M, but for now, he should be able to beat Missouri.  Missouri does have a decent defense, and Drew Lock is quietly having an outstanding year at quarterback.  This one could be closer than the spread indicates.

Bottom Line

I'm picking Tennessee to cover the spread against Georgia.