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Why the ESPN FPI prediction for MSU Football is WRONG

ESPN FPI predicts Mississippi State to win 8 games

Matt Bush

You know football season is coming when you hear the media talk about who has a championship team this year, but no offseason is complete without hearing how MSU will underperform etc. etc. This used to irritate me, but now I just laugh because more times than not they are wrong.

ESPN FPI predicted MSU to win 8.4 games this year. For the sake of argument, I will say 8 games because .4 does not round up. Next, I will lay out the schedule for the 2018 season and predict our wins.

Cupcake Games

Stephen F. Austin- September 1

Louisiana-Lafayette- September 15

Louisiana Tech- November 3

These games will hopefully be over by halftime giving the backups some valuable playing time.

Predicted record in these games: 3-0

Should Win Games

Kansas State- September 8

Kentucky- September 22

Florida- September 29

Texas A&M- October 27

Arkansas- November 17

Some people will wonder why I have Florida on this list. If you are wondering, it is because they just came off a 4-8 season, and this game will be played in Starkville. Players will have this game marked on their calendars after Dan Mullen left them for the head coaching job at Florida. For the rest of the games on this list, we have a combination of more talent and better coaching than these teams.

Predicted record in these games: 5-0

Tossup Games:

Auburn- October 6

LSU- October 20

Ole Miss- November 22

There are many different ways to look at these games. I will start with Auburn. Talent wise we are neck in neck with their team. The game will be played in Starkville, so that will give MSU an advantage. I will have to see more from both teams before I can predict a winner.

We should be able to out-coach LSU and beat them even if the game is in Death Valley. Their roster is stacked, but I am not sold on Ole' Orgeron.

If Ole Miss was not our rival, this game would not even be on this list. After our last Egg Bowl, we all know that it only takes one play to change a season. (R.I.P. Nick) On top of that, we had the talent to win easily in 2014 and didn't. That was the year State was ranked #1 in the country for five straight weeks.

Predicted record in these games: 2-1 (all 3 are definitely winnable)

Underdog Games

Alabama November- November 10

If there is one game I want to see us win this season, this is it. I still have a bad taste in my mouth after our last second loss against them last year. This team is stacked with 5 star recruits from top to bottom, and as much as I hate to say it, they have the best coach in college football. This is definitely a game that will define MSU's season.

Predicted record in these games 0-1

Overall Record for the 2018 regular season: 10-2 or 11-1

This could be an exciting year in Starkvegas, and I hope you are ready for the wild ride that starts September 1, 2018.