Lock of the Week, Week 6

Week 5 Recap

With three teams winning by five votes last week, I decided to count all three spreads.  This decision worked out for the best, because Vanderbilt, San Jose State, and Florida all covered the spread.  Our voters correctly picked Missouri and Arkansas as well as the teams I mentioned in the previous sentence.  Our voters incorrectly picked LSU and Georgia.  Maybe we should have seen the Georgia loss coming, but if the line had been UGA +27, a lot of people would have created gambling accounts just for that game.

2015 Results

Lock of the Week: 5-2

Myself: 3-4

Overall Votes: 17-15

New Mexico State at Mississippi (UM -44.5)

Picking a team to score 70 points never seems realistic, but Mississippi could do it for the third time this season.  They could also continue to struggle like they have the last couple of weeks and not even score 44 points.  New Mexico State is a tempting pick because they do actually run the ball very well.  Their starting runningback averages 8.2 yards per carry.  However, New Mexico State only has two sacks this season, and being able to put pressure on Chad Kelly is the most important part of stopping Mississippi's offense.

LSU at South Carolina in Baton Rouge (LSU -19.5)

Even though the game was moved to Baton Rouge due to flooding in South Carolina, South Carolina is still considered the home team.  Vegas does view LSU as the home team, because the line did change from -13 to -19.  19 may still be too low.  North Carolina, Georgia, and Kentucky's best runningbacks all averaged over 7 yards per carry against USC.  Ish Witter, Missouri's temporary replacement for Russell Hansbrough, averaged 5.8 yards a carry against South Carolina last week, and he has struggled against FBS teams.  Connor Mitch is still out, and Nunez may not play after getting injured against Missouri (he took several big hits last week besides the one that knocked him out of the game).  Brandon Wilds will be back at runningback, but it doesn't sound like he is going to be fully recovered from his rib injury.

Georgia at Tennessee (UGA -2.5)

Whoever loses this game will have the angriest fans in the SEC this weekend, unless a huge upset occurs in another game.  This should be the most entertaining game of the week.  Nothing would really surprise me in this game, besides a blowout.  I'm slightly leaning towards Tennessee to win, but you can't rule out the possibility of Butch Jones blowing another lead late in the game.  Football Study Hall writer Bill Connelly does have Tennessee winning this one.

Troy at Mississippi State (MSU -30.5)

As usual, I'll leave the detailed preview to other writers on this site.  MSU should win easily.  Whether MSU covers the spread or not depends on how aggressive Mullen will be on offense, and how much he plans to play the second team.

Arkansas at Alabama (UA -16.5)

Do we see the Wisconsin or Georgia version of Jake Coker, or the Louisiana Monroe version?  If Lane Kiffin uses the same offensive strategy against Arkansas that he used last week, Alabama could cover, but Arkansas is good enough to make this a semi-competitive game.  For Arkansas to keep this close, Alex Collins needs to be productive, and Brandon Allen needs to continue to avoid turnovers, which he is exceptionally good at.  This spread could go either way.

Florida at Missouri (UF -4.5)

Missouri needs Russell Hansbrough to have a decent rushing attack, and he did look more healthy last week than he has in previous weeks.  Drew Lock looks like he could be a good QB for Missouri.  He averaged a low amount of yards per passing attempt against South Carolina, but their playcalls were very conservative.  Lock did get sacked 4 times.  Will Grier is well on his way to making the Freshmen All-America team, and Florida's defense has played well.

The Picks

I pick LSU, and what I really mean is that I pick Leonard Fournette.