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Lock of the Week, Week 11

I'll get my pick of the week out of the way early by selecting an 11 AM game.

Week 10 Recap

I selected LSU as my pick to cover the spread, and as you probably noticed, it did not go well.  Alabama might as well have been allowed to have fifteen players on the field while they were on defense.  Unfortunately, I was not alone in my LSU pick, since our voters also picked LSU to cover.  Our voters correctly picked Auburn, and missed Florida, Kentucky, Tennessee, and LSU to go 1-4.

2015 Results

Lock of the Week: 8-4

Myself: 7-6

Overall Votes: 26-30

Georgia at Auburn (AU -1.5)

Georgia ran the ball 52 times last week, compared to 19 passes.  Maybe that was partially to put Kentucky out of their misery early?  Sony Michel has established himself as Nick Chubb's replacement, and hasn't been bad.  Auburn's run defense has not been good this year, but has played better in the last couple of games.  Auburn seems to have resolved their quarterback issues by not asking Jeremy Johnson to throw the ball too much, and not throwing any deep passes.  Jovon Robinson finally being healthy has been a big boost as well.

Florida at South Carolina (UF -7.5)

Brandon Wilds is having a good year for South Carolina, which has been overlooked because he was hurt early in the season.  Florida played one of their worst games of the year and still clinched the SEC East.  It was actually entertaining to watch despite all the encouragement that people gave on the internet to not watch it.  I don't really like completion percentage as a stat to evaluate quarterbacks, but since the Will Grier suspension, Treon Harris has completed 49.3% of his passes, which is extremely bad because he isn't throwing very many deep completions.  This could be another close low scoring game for Florida.

North Texas at Tennessee (UT -41.5)

Tennessee has proven that they aren't exceptional, but are a good team that runs the ball well, can be inconsistent passing the ball, and has a decent defense.  While competitive, that doesn't sound like a team that should be favored by almost 6 touchdowns.  However, North Texas is one of the worst FBS teams any SEC team has played this year.  They lost to FCS opponent Portland State 66-7.  Portland State did beat Washington State, who is 6-3, but losing by 59 to anyone is terrible.  Tennessee could cover this massive spread.

Mississippi State at Alabama (UA -8)

Maybe Derrick Henry will be exhausted from his 38 carries last week.  There will be much more information in the game preview tomorrow.

Kentucky at Vanderbilt (VU -3.5)

Is this the first time Vanderbilt has been favored this season, besides against Austin Peay? They've had a couple of close spreads against Western Kentucky and Missouri.  If Stanley Williams is healthy, Kentucky might be able to pull of the upset.  If he isn't, Vanderbilt's defense should be good enough to get a win over Kentucky, with another chance at a win against Texas A&M at home next week.  Based on the Kentucky SB Nation website's current front page, they have turned their attention to basketball season.

Western Carolina at Texas A&M

This is a good opportunity for the Aggies to take out their recent frustrations on another team.

Arkansas at LSU (LSU -7.5)

Arkansas currently is playing well enough to stay within a touchdown of anyone right now.  Their pass defense is ranked 115th in the nation according the the S&P rankings, and LSU will run the ball well on anyone (well, almost anyone).  Both offenses are actually similarly built, since they prioritize running the ball and avoiding turnovers.  If you want to relive Mississippi's suffering from Arkansas's 4th and 25 conversion, you can do so here.

BYU at Missouri (BYU -6.5) at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City

I don't know much about BYU, but they are 7-2.  The last few weeks have been eventful in Columbia, and it is hard to know how that will impact how well they play Saturday.  Russell Hansbrough looked the healthiest he has all season against MSU on Thursday night, which hopefully has more to do with him than MSU's run defense.

The Pick

I'll pick Auburn because Malzahn seems to have a better gameplan for Jeremy Johnson than he did earlier in the year, and Jovon Robinson has played really well the last few weeks.  I won't pick Arkansas, but I'll give them an honorable mention, which I'll probably regret after giving them an honorable mention last week and not picking them.