Lock of the Week, Round 12

Week 11 Recap

I selected Auburn last week, and unfortunately, Jeremy Johnson regressed to the level he was at earlier this season, and Sean White still wasn't healthy enough to play for the whole game.  I didn't watch much of it, but would like to have seen how many deep passing plays Malzahn called in this game.  Our voters wisely selected Arkansas as the lock of the week, and I gave them an honorable mention last week.  They clearly deserved my vote instead of an honorable mention, because they have gotten the fire Les Miles rumors started.  Les Miles will find a way to survive, as he always does.  Of course, he could leave willingly.  There has been interest from other schools before.

Our voters finished 1-5 last week, only getting the lock of the week correct.  So far, taking the most popular pick among our voters has easily been the best strategy.

2015 Results

The Lock of the Week: 9-4

Our Voters: 27-35

Myself: 7-7

Florida Atlantic at Florida (UF -31)

Several people on the internet gave advice such as "Don't watch Florida vs. Vanderbilt" or "Don't watch Vanderbilt vs. Kentucky" since they weren't expected to have much entertainment value, but I still watched most of those games, and they were entertaining.  However, I advise you to not watch this game unless you are a coach for FSU, a degenerate gambler, or have some ties to the state of Florida.

The Citadel at South Carolina

See the previous advice about the game and apply it to people from South Carolina instead of Florida.

LSU at Mississippi (UM -5.5)

LSU actually passed the ball more than they ran it last week, even if you don't count sacks.  That means things went terribly wrong for LSU, despite Brandon Harris's improvement from last season.  If Les Miles really is coaching for his job, get ready for some fake field goals or some other forms of insanity.

Idaho at Auburn (AU -34)

Auburn needs this game to reach six wins and probably go to the Birmingham Bowl at Legion Field.  They could technically lose to Idaho and beat Alabama to win six games, but that will not happen.  Idaho is actually an interesting team to keep track of, because they are in the Sun Belt.  Their nearest conference opponent is in Arkansas.  Also, their head coach is Paul Petrino, who is Bobby Petrino's brother.  Paul Petrino is currently 5-28 at Idaho, and clearly hates the First Amendment.  I would stay away from this game, because I have no idea how healthy some of Auburn's most important players are.

Charleston Southern at Alabama

Charleston Southern is the 121st best Division I team in the nation, which is quite good for an FCS school.  They are 9-1.  Saban is not taking the game lightly despite his team's impressive performance last weekend.  Georgia Southern appreciated the publicity from Saban's rant that I linked in the previous sentence.

Georgia Southern at Georgia (UGA -13.5)

Georgia will have the opportunity to face the triple option from someone other than Georgia Tech.  Georgia's run defense is ranked 40th according to the S&P rankings, so they have the talent to stop the run.  Georgia might be put on upset alert because Georgia Southern beat Florida without completing a pass in 2013, and they are 7-2.  However, that upset did occur during the Muschamp era, and Georgia Southern's best win this year is against Western Michigan.

Tennessee at Missouri (UT -7.5)

Due to a bad start and a couple of very close losses, Tennessee is one of the most underrated teams in the conference this season.  Missouri is playing much better now that Russell Hansbrough is healthy.  This is one of the more entertaining games in a light week.

Texas A&M at Vanderbilt (TAMU -7)

Texas A&M is still having quarterback drama in week 12.  Kyler Murray and Kyle Allen were both heavily recruited, but Kyle Allen threw a lot of pick sixes in the middle of the season, and Kyler Murray has had trouble adjusting to the SEC, which is understandable because he is a true freshman.  Allen didn't play when Murray got hurt against Auburn, which contributes to the theory that he was hurt while playing against Alabama and Mississippi.  Allen did go 6 for 6 last week, so he might be healthy enough to start again.  Vanderbilt's defense should keep this interesting.  A fun note is that Vanderbilt could become bowl eligible by going 5-7 due to their high APR scores (that is the NCAA's metric for measuring academic success).  That would be the most Vanderbilt event ever.

Charlotte at Kentucky (UK -24.5)

Kentucky can still win out to get to a bowl if they beat Charlotte and Louisville, which isn't unrealistic.  Patrick Towles is too inconsistent for me to want to pick a game involving him, so I'm staying away.  This shouldn't be a competitive game though.

Mississippi State at Arkansas (ARK -4)

MSU doesn't have to go to Little Rock, which is very rare.  The preview will be available tomorrow.

The Pick

Tennessee