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Your Guide to SEC Spreads and Hating FPI, Week 7

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If you like to live by certain strategies, pick underdogs this week.

All the games weren't quite as close as expected last week, especially one game that will remain nameless, but it was still a fairly entertaining week in the conference.  This week has a few entertaining games as well.

Mississippi State at BYU

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas BYU 7
FPI BYU 7
S&P BYU 7

This much consensus here is odd.  With the game coming on at 9:15, I almost want this to either be a win (obviously the more preferable option) or a quick and decisive loss.  The projecting systems are obviously predicting neither of those outcomes.  Other than their win over the Big Ten MSU last week, every game BYU has played has been decided by three points or less.

To sum up their offense, they are team that runs the ball fairly well with a mobile quarterback, but they do not have a prolific passing offense.  This should sound eerily similar to last week.  Their quarterback does weigh almost as much as Auburn's big runningback we saw last week.  BYU's starting runningback isn't quite as big, but they do have a 250 pounder who only has six carries for five yards on the season.

On defense, their linebackers are extremely good.  They also have a defensive back who has four interceptions, but hasn't broken up a pass during the entire season, which is odd.  Their defensive line, which only has one sack this entire season, is probably the weakest part of the defense,

MSU can hang in there with BYU, but will have to play their best game of the year to actually win this win.  For more statistical information on BYU than you probably want, click here.

Vanderbilt at Georgia

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UGA 14
FPI UGA 11
S&P UGA 16

Vanderbilt's defense should keep this from being embarrassing, but it would be shocking if they pulled off the upset.  Georgia gets a win similar to last week's against South Carolina.

Alabama at Tennessee

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas Alabama 13
FPI Alabama 6
S&P Alabama 11

In the game of the decade for UT, they are still underdogs by 13.  One part of the gameplan to watch for is how much Kamara, Tennessee's backup runningback, gets the ball after his performance last week.  Alabama has the edge over Tennessee at almost every position, but Tennessee has enough overall talent to keep this one under 13 points.

Missouri at Florida

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UF 13
FPI UF 10
S&P UF 16

With Florida's starting quarterback returning, I'm not sure how to pick this one.  Florida's defense should match up well with Missouri's offense.  Don't expect many points in this one.

Mississippi at Arkansas

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas UM 7
FPI UM 8
S&P UM 5

Arkansas's fairly lopsided losses against Alabama and Texas A&M are discouraging, but they did beat TCU, who is supposed to be fairly good.  This should be a high scoring game, and Arkansas probably needs to force some turnovers to win this one.

Southern Mississippi at LSU

Winner Margin of Victory
Vegas LSU 25
FPI LSU 27
S&P LSU 20

The legend of interim Ed Orgeron will continue.

The Bottom Line

Last season I was slightly over .500, and this season I will be lucky to break .500, so you probably shouldn't listen to me, or any other random person on the internet for that matter.  But I'll take Tennessee to cover this weekend, even though I don't expect them to win.