A Look at the Accuracy of Media Predictions Since 2009

Mississippi State has once again been predicted to finish last in the SEC West. However, in reality, Mississippi State has not finished last in the SEC West since 2009, which was Dan Mullen's first year. Despite knowledge of this fact, the media continues predict Mississippi State as the worst team in the west.

So today, we are going to look at the teams that have consistently exceeded expectations, the teams that have consistently failed to meet expectations, and also the teams that have consistently met their expectations. Each season is different and there are some anomalies, however the goal of this article is to look at the trend of the media's accuracy of the past six seasons.  Since the 2016 season has not finished, the 2016 preseason standings will not be used.

In order to determine which SEC Team has exceeded the media's expectations the most, a system has been put into place that shows how well a team has finished in the SEC Standings in contrast or accordance with their preseason prediction. How good a team was or how well they played or how memorable a certain season or play was has no factor in this system because it purely measures living up to media expectations. For example, if Tennessee is predicted to win the SEC East and they end up finishing 4th, then they will have negative three points or -3. Points will only be determined by division standings and not conference champions.

2009

	SEC Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Florida
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	Florida	64(64)
2.	Georgia	133
3.	South Carolina	217
4.	Tennessee	258
5.	Vanderbilt	317
6.	Kentucky	355
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	109(33)
2.	LSU	145(15)
3.	Ole Miss	149(16)
4.	Arkansas	245
5.	Auburn	309
6.	Mississippi State	387

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Florida	8-0	13-1
2.	Georgia	4-4	8-5
3.	Tennessee	4-4	7-6
4.	Kentucky	3-5	7-6
5.	South Carolina	3-5	7-6
6.	Vanderbilt	0-8	2-10
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	8-0	14-0
2.	LSU	5-3	9-4
3.	Ole Miss	4-4	9-4
4.	Arkansas	3-5	8-5
5.	Auburn	3-5	8-5
6.	Mississippi State	3-5	5-7

The SEC Media correctly predicted the entire SEC West this year which is surprising, as you will see. Meanwhile in the SEC East South Carolina is now at -2 because they finished two spots below where they were expected to finish. Vanderbilt is at -1,Tennessee is at +1, and Kentucky is at +2. Meanwhile the rest of the SEC is at 0 for meeting their preseason expectation.

2010

	SEC Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	Florida	1030(153)
2.	Georgia	791(15)
3.	South Carolina	790(8)
4.	Kentucky	462
5.	Tennessee	450
6.	Vanderbilt	194(1)
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	1034(157)
2.	Arkansas	726(6)
3.	Auburn	691(10)
4.	LSU	653(1)
5.	Mississippi State	320
6.	Ole Miss	293

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Auburn
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	South Carolina	5-3	9-5
2.	Florida	4-4	8-5
3.	Georgia	3-5	6-7
4.	Tennessee	3-5	6-7
5.	Kentucky	2-6	6-7
6.	Vanderbilt	1-7	2-10
	Western Division
1.	Auburn	8-0	14-0
2.	Arkansas	6-2	10-3
3.	LSU	6-2	11-2
4.	Alabama	5-3	10-3
5.	Mississippi State	4-4	9-4
6.	Ole Miss	1-6	4-8

In the SEC West, Alabama moves down to -3, Arkansas remains at 0, Auburn moves up to +2, LSU moves up to +1, and Mississippi State and Ole Miss remain at 0. In the SEC East, Florida moves down to -1, Georgia moves down to -1, Kentucky moves down to +1, Tennessee moves up to +2, and Vanderbilt remains at -1.

2011

	SEC Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	South Carolina	(114)
2.	Georgia	(38)
3.	Florida	(12)
4.	Tennessee	(2)
5.	Kentucky	(1)
6.	Vanderbilt
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	(111)
2.	LSU	(30)
3.	Arkansas	(23)
4.	Mississippi State	(1)
5.	Auburn
6.	Ole Miss	(2)

*note- unable to find total votes for preseason

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: LSU
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Georgia	7-1	10-4
2.	South Carolina	6-2	11-2
3.	Florida	3-5	7-6
4.	Vanderbilt	2-6	6-7
5.	Kentucky	2-6	5-7
6.	Tennessee	1-7	5-7
	Western Division
1.	LSU	8-0	13-1
2.	Alabama	7-1	12-1
3.	Arkansas	6-2	11-2
4.	Auburn	4-4	8-5
5.	Mississippi State	2-6	7-6
6.	Ole Miss	0-8	2-10

So in the SEC West, Alabama moves down to -4(National Championships do not factor in the point system either), Arkansas remains at 0, Auburn moves up to +3, LSU moves up to +2, Mississippi State moves down to -1, and Ole Miss remains at 0. In the SEC East, Florida remains at -1, Georgia moves up to 0, Kentucky remains at +1, South Carolina moves down to -1, Tennessee moves down to 0 and Vanderbilt moves up to +1.

2012

	Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: LSU
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	Georgia	(132)
2.	South Carolina	(72)
3.	Florida	(12)
4.	Missouri	(2)
5.	Tennessee	(4)
6.	Vanderbilt
7.	Kentucky
	Western Division
1.	LSU	(139)
2.	Alabama	(72)
3.	Arkansas	(6)
4.	Auburn	(4)
5.	Texas A&M
6.	Mississippi State
7.	Ole Miss	(1)

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Georgia	7-1	12-2
2.	Florida	7-1	11-2
3.	South Carolina	6-2	11-2
4.	Vanderbilt	5-3	9-4
5.	Missouri	2-6	5-7
6.	Tennessee	1-7	5-7
7.	Kentucky	0-8	2-10
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	7-1	13-1
2.	LSU	6-2	10-3
3.	Texas A&M	6-2	11-2
4.	Mississippi State	4-4	8-5
5.	Ole Miss	3-5	7-6
6.	Arkansas	2-6	4-8
7.	Auburn	0-8	3-9

In the SEC West, Alabama moves up to -3, Arkansas plummets to -3, Auburn plummets to 0, LSU moves down to +1, Mississippi State moves up to +1, Ole Miss moves up to +2, and Texas A&M checks in at +2. In the SEC East, Florida moves up to 0, Georgia remains at 0, Kentucky remains at +1, Missouri checks in at -1, South Carolina moves down to -2, Tennessee moves down to -1, and Vanderbilt moves up to +3.

2013

	Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	Georgia	1570(149)
2.	South Carolina	1474(75)
3.	Florida	1300(19)
4.	Vanderbilt	858
5.	Tennessee	694
6.	Missouri	577
7.	Kentucky	331
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	1681(225)
2.	Texas A&M	1333(11)
3.	LSU	1324(7)
4.	Ole Miss	883
5.	Auburn	579
6.	Mississippi State	516
7.	Arkansas	488

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Missouri	7-1	12-2
2.	South Carolina	6-2	11-2
3.	Georgia	5-3	8-5
4.	Vanderbilt	4-4	9-4
5.	Florida	3-5	4-8
6.	Tennessee	2-6	5-7
7.	Kentucky	0-8	2-10
	Western Division
1.	Auburn	7-1	12-2
2.	Alabama	7-1	12-2
3.	LSU	5-3	10-3
4.	Texas A&M	4-4	9-4
5.	Mississippi State	3-5	7-6
6.	Ole Miss	3-5	8-5
7.	Arkansas	0-8	3-9

In the SEC West, Alabama moves down to -4, Arkansas remains at -3, Auburn jumps up to +4, LSU remains at +1, Mississippi State moves up to +2, and Ole Miss and Texas A&M move down to 0. IN the SEC East, Florida moves down to -2, Georgia moves down to -2, Kentucky remains at +1, Missouri jumps up to +4, South Carolina remains at -2, Tennessee moves down to -2, and Vanderbilt remains at +3.

2014

	Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	South Carolina	1895
2.	Georgia	1777
3.	Florida	1362
4.	Missouri	1263
5.	Tennessee	893
6.	Vanderbilt	619
7.	Kentucky	395
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	1915
2.	Auburn	1735
3.	LSU	1453
4.	Ole Miss	1069
5.	Mississippi State	890
6.	Texas A&M	791
7.	Arkansas	351

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Missouri	7-1	11-3
2.	Gerogia	6-2	10-3
3.	Florida	4-4	7-5
4.	Tennessee	3-5	7-6
5.	South Carolina	3-5	7-6
6.	Kentucky	2-6	5-7
7.	Vanderbilt	0-8	3-9
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	7-1	12-2
2.	Mississippi State	6-2	10-3
3.	Ole Miss	5-3	9-4
4.	Auburn	4-4	8-5
5.	LSU	4-4	8-5
6.	Texas A&M	3-5	8-5
7.	Arkansas	2-6	7-6

In the Sec West, Alabama remains at -4, Arkansas remains at -3, Auburn moves down to +2, Mississippi State jumps up to +5, Ole Miss moves up to +1, and Texas A&M remains at 0. In the SEC East, Florida remains at -2, Georgia remains at -2, Kentucky moves up to +2, Missouri jumps up to +7, South Carolina falls to -6, Tennessee moves up to -1, and Vanderbilt moves down to +2.

2015

	Predicted Order of Finish
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Votes(1st)
1.	Georgia	1498(166)
2.	Tennessee	1231(36)
3.	Missouri	1196(20)
4.	South Carolina	830(1)
5.	Florida	768(1)
6.	Kentucky	534(1)
7.	Vanderbilt	243
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	1405(92)
2.	Auburn	1362(108)
3.	LSU	870(10)
4.	Arkansas	821(6)
5.	Ole Miss	732(3)
6.	Texas A&M	628(4)
7.	Mississippi State	482(2)

	Final SEC Conference Standings
	SEC Champion: Alabama
	Eastern Division	Conf	Over
1.	Florida	7-1	10-4
2.	Tennessee	5-3	9-4
3.	Georgia	5-3	10-3
4.	Vanderbilt	2-6	4-8
5.	Kentucky	2-5	5-7
6.	Missouri	1-7	5-7
7.	South Carolina	1-7	3-9
	Western Division
1.	Alabama	7-1	14-1
2.	Ole Miss	6-2	10-3
3.	Arkansas	5-3	8-5
4.	LSU	5-3	9-3
5.	Texas A&M	4-4	8-5
6.	Mississippi State	4-4	9-4
7.	Auburn	2-6	7-6

Final Results

	The Difference in Division Standings (2009-2015)
1.	Mississippi State	+6
2.	Vanderbilt	+5
3..	Missouri	+4
3..	Ole Miss	+4
4.	Kentucky	+3
6.	Florida	+2
7.	Texas A&M	+1
8.	Tennessee	-1
9.	Arkansas	-2
9.	LSU	-2
11.	Auburn	-3
12.	Georgia	-4
12.	Alabama	-4
14.	South Carolina	-9

Mississippi State is the #1 team in the SEC to exceed the medias expectations in the SEC during Dan Mullen's tenure. One thing to note about these numbers is if your team is ranked 1st almost every preseason, then you are likely to not meet that expectation year after year which is why you see some of the top SEC teams near the bottom.

Before 2012 (Dak Prescott's first season) Mississippi State either lived up to its preseason expectation, or failed to meet their expectation. Dak Prescott was able to take Mississippi State to the next level with this shift, and if Mississippi State is going to continue this trend, then they are going to need to exceed the media's expectations like Dak Prescott was able to do.