Last week was a calm week, with the closest thing to an upset being Arkansas's victory over TCU, which wasn't much of an upset. The predictions are usually accurate when there are no big upsets, and that was the case last week. Both FPI and S&P went 10-1. Their results for the season are below.
| Overall Record | Locks (7 or more ATS) | |
| FPI | 22-5 | 0-1 |
| S&P | 20-7 | 1-1 |
There were no "locks" last week. Changing the criteria to 4 points or more would give us more. This weeks picks are below. I was going to add Houston and Cincinnati, but it is currently on TV.
Ohio at Tennessee
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | UT | 27 |
| FPI | UT | 31 |
| S&P | UT | 25 |
27 sounds like a lot, but Tennessee made the Appalachian State game look like an anomaly last week. Ohio did beat Kansas last week, but that isn't convincing me that they will cover the spread.
Vanderbilt at Georgia Tech
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | Georgia Tech | 6 |
| FPI | Georgia Tech | 2 |
| S&P | Georgia Tech | 6 |
Vanderbilt discovered offense last week against Middle Tennessee State. The real question is if they can stop the triple option, which is difficult if your team doesn't see it regularly. They have a good defense, so this should be an entertaining one. I could see Vanderbilt covering the spread and losing.
Alabama at Mississippi
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | Alabama | 11 |
| FPI | Alabama | 6 |
| S&P | Alabama | 6 |
Both teams are coming off boring games. I'm expecting Alabama to win and Mississippi to cover, but I've thought that the last two years.
East Carolina at South Carolina
| Winner | Margin of VIctory | |
| Spread | USC | 3 |
| FPI | USC | 8 |
| S&P | USC | 6 |
Muschamp is not telling us who will start at quarterback against East Carolina. East Carolina has beaten some Power 5 conference schools in the past, and they shouldn't be ruled out in this one. I am leaning towards USC.
New Mexico State at Kentucky
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | UK | 21 |
| FPI | UK | 16 |
| S&P | UK | 10 |
Only being favored by three touchdowns against New Mexico State at home and not being expected to cover is the epitome of being on the hot seat.
Texas A&M at Auburn
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | Auburn | 3 |
| FPI | Auburn | 1 |
| S&P | Auburn | 2 |
Maybe everyone is putting too much stock into their blowout win over Arkansas State. I am picking Texas A&M in this one. The players on both defensive lines are the ones to watch for this game. This game should be the most competitive one of the weekend.
North Texas at Florida
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | UF | 36 |
| FPI | UF | 36 |
| S&P | UF | 35 |
With Florida's offensive struggles last year, it is tempting to pick North Texas to cover with the spread being this big. However, North Texas is one of the worst FBS teams in the country, so Florida probably decides the spread when they pick how early to put in their backups.
Texas State at Arkansas
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | Arkansas | 31 |
| FPI | Arkansas | 26 |
| S&P | Arkansas | 29 |
Not that I've written anything lengthy, but I'm not going in depth on this one.
Mississippi State at Louisiana State
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | LSU | 14 |
| FPI | LSU | 15 |
| S&P | LSU | 12 |
While I don't feel good about the actual outcome, MSU should stay within a couple of touchdowns. MSU's run defense has been much better than the pass defense so far, so the big question is how much damage LSU will do on the ground. On offense, the receivers need to have less dropped passes than they did last week
Georgia at Missouri
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | UGA | 7 |
| FPI | UGA | 1 |
| S&P | UGA | 7 |
This seems bold by FPI. Eason could struggle against Missouri's pass defense, so it isn't unreasonable to think this one will be close.
Miami at Appalachian State
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | Miami | 3 |
| FPI | Miami | 5 |
| S&P | Miami | 5 |
I shared this one since Miami is on upset alert. An upset would make Tennessee fans feel more at ease.
Ohio State at Oklahoma
| Winner | Margin of Victory | |
| Spread | OSU | 2 |
| FPI | OU | 1 |
| S&P | OU | 5 |
I shared this one just to prepare you for the "Big Game Bob Stoops" takes, which will be heard regardless of the outcome.
The Bottom Line
I would pick Mississippi as one of the most likely to cover, but I don't want to get fired. I expect Texas A&M's defensive line to wreck enough havoc to beat Auburn, even though Auburn's defense has actually been quite good themselves so far this season.