/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/49762495/HJIJIVZLHQXACMB.20140716141805.0.0.jpg)
Arguably the most entertaining weekend of the season in college baseball begins tomorrow. Fans all over the county will define their favorite team's season based on the next 2-4 games, which is a little insane considering how often upsets happen in baseball. Anyway, I've listed which teams should win their regionals based on the ranking systems that exist. I'm skeptical of most of them since the people who make these ranking systems don't share how they are calculated. That being said, we can make fun of them for being wrong or be impressed if they do well, so we might as well look at what they predict. It's not like I've watched enough Southeast Missouri State baseball to have an informed opinion on them anyway.
Thanks to a user on college baseball reddit, we have the average RPI of each team in a regional. It is not encouraging. I also looked up all the ranking systems on warrennolan.com. I have each regional listed below.
Starkville
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
Mississippi State | 11 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
Cal-State Fullerton | 42 | 25 | 62 | 49 | 45 |
Louisiana Tech | 31 | 27 | 33 | 17 | 27 |
Southeast Missouri State | 54 | 71 | 20 | 46 | 48 |
Average System Rank | 35 | 33 | 31 | 30 | 32 |
MSU is the best team in this regional, but there isn't an easy opponent in this regional. These rankings don't think Cal-State Fullerton is a very strong 2 seed, but they think La Tech should be a two seed, and SE Missouri State could be a 3 seed. It will be interesting to see who starts against SE Missouri State tomorrow.
To briefly preview the regional, Cal-State Fullerton's lineup is not intimidating. However, they have extremely good pitching. Connor Seabold is striking out 13 batters for every one he walks, so hopefully he pitches against somebody else. La Tech has a balanced lineup and a good bullpen, but their starting pitching looks vulnerable. SE Missouri State's lineup looks good, but their strength of schedule is bad, so I'm not sure how good the pitchers are that they have faced. Outfielder Chris Osborne is their best hitter. He has a lot of power, but does strike out a lot. Joey Lucchesi is by far their best starting pitcher. MSU should win this regional, but it is going to be difficult, especially if teams save their best starting pitchers for MSU.
Gainesville
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
Florida | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
Georgia Tech | 20 | 32 | 40 | 51 | 36 |
Connecticut | 51 | 67 | 49 | 27 | 49 |
Bethune-Cookman | 163 | 187 | 146 | 82 | 145 |
Average System Rank | 59 | 72 | 60 | 41 | 58 |
This isn't a bad regional, except for Bethune-Cookman. They are an example of why I don't like conference tournament champions getting automatic bids to regionals. They went 29-25 in one of the worst conferences in Division I. Maybe Georgia Tech makes this regional interesting.
Baton Rouge
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
LSU | 7 | 10 | 13 | 4 | 9 |
Rice | 23 | 33 | 61 | 35 | 38 |
Southeastern Louisiana | 40 | 42 | 22 | 40 | 36 |
Utah Valley State | 129 | 94 | 73 | 42 | 56 |
Average System Rank | 50 | 45 | 42 | 30 | 35 |
This is one of the more competitive regionals. It is sort of similar to MSU's in that there isn't a specific team that looks like a good upset pick, but no team should be taken lightly.
College Station
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
Texas A&M | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 4 |
Minnesota | 50 | 56 | 35 | 84 | 56 |
Wake Forest | 25 | 48 | 71 | 38 | 46 |
Binghamton | 105 | 172 | 102 | 58 | 58 |
Average System Ranking | 46 | 70 | 43 | 46 | 41 |
Texas A&M is my pick to win the national championship, and they should have little trouble winning this regional.
Nashville
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
Vanderbilt | 9 | 6 | 16 | 11 | 11 |
UC Santa Barbara | 24 | 21 | 41 | 61 | 37 |
Washington | 55 | 34 | 74 | 64 | 57 |
Xavier | 79 | 122 | 117 | 37 | 89 |
Average System Ranking | 42 | 46 | 62 | 43 | 49 |
Unfortunately, the ranking systems project the whistling Vandy fan to advance to Super Regionals. Prepare the mute button on your remotes.
Columbia
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
South Carolina | 8 | 11 | 15 | 13 | 12 |
UNC Wilmington | 33 | 60 | 37 | 57 | 47 |
Duke | 26 | 45 | 58 | 26 | 39 |
Rhode Island | 111 | 160 | 101 | 86 | 115 |
Average System Ranking | 45 | 69 | 53 | 46 | 53 |
This is the easiest regional in the SEC, unless the Gainesville one is the easiest.
Oxford
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO | Average Team Rank |
Mississippi | 5 | 7 | 14 | 9 | 9 |
Tulane | 29 | 31 | 39 | 39 | 35 |
Boston College | 39 | 55 | 63 | 32 | 47 |
Utah | 93 | 78 | 139 | 67 | 94 |
Average System Ranking | 42 | 33 | 64 | 37 | 46 |
That is all the regionals that are hosted by an SEC team. I am going to cut out the average ranks the rest of the way because it is time consuming.
Tallahasee
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Florida State | 13 | 14 | 26 | 22 |
Southern Mississippi | 19 | 15 | 25 | 19 |
South Alabama | 41 | 43 | 43 | 75 |
Alabama State | 158 | 145 | 31 | 28 |
This is an interesting regional. Southern Miss has as good a chance as any team of getting an upset. Why do two of these ranking systems like Alabama State so much?
Raleigh
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
North Carolina State | 10 | 16 | 27 | 36 |
Coastal Carolina | 12 | 18 | 9 | 7 |
Saint Mary's | 57 | 44 | 66 | 63 |
Navy | 150 | 140 | 34 | 59 |
Be terrified of Coastal Carolina, Wolfpack. Also, Preston Palmeiro is hitting .326, with an on base percentage of .401 and slugging percentage of .519.
Lubbock
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Texas Tech | 14 | 9 | 7 | 21 |
Dallas Baptist | 22 | 22 | 19 | 25 |
New Mexico | 49 | 40 | 38 | 52 |
Fairfield | 183 | 192 | 131 | 80 |
Charlottesville
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Virginia | 17 | 23 | 29 | 18 |
Bryant | 28 | 54 | 1 | 12 |
East Carolina | 36 | 53 | 46 | 92 |
William and Mary | 97 | 143 | 119 | 113 |
There is not a typo in the table above; Bryant is the best team in the nation according to Nolan Power Index. Interestingly, they are also named the Bulldogs. Get ready to shock the world, Bryant. I will be watching to see what the hype is all about.
Fort Worth
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
TCU | 16 | 5 | 6 | 16 |
Arizona State | 43 | 30 | 60 | 54 |
Gonzaga | 30 | 24 | 17 | 44 |
Oral Roberts | 64 | 77 | 48 | 48 |
The three and four seeds in this regional are quite good, which bodes well for Texas A&M. The winner of the College Station regional plays the winner of this regional.
Louisville
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Louisville | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Ohio State | 35 | 37 | 28 | 10 |
Wright State | 44 | 39 | 10 | 20 |
Western Michigan | 215 | 225 | 221 | 167 |
A Western Michigan first round win would be the upset of the century (an overstatement, maybe). It is safe to say these rankings like Louisville. Hopefully for Ohio State, their starting pitching is as stacked as their group of quarterbacks. Also, I need to give a shout out to Western Michigan going 22-32 and making it to the regionals. The winner of this regional gets the winner in Nashville.
Clemson
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Clemson | 6 | 12 | 11 | 6 |
Oklahoma State | 32 | 28 | 32 | 47 |
Nebraska | 48 | 46 | 52 | 30 |
Western Carolina | 103 | 132 | 112 | 95 |
Lafayette
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Louisiana Lafayette | 15 | 17 | 18 | 15 |
Arizona | 21 | 13 | 36 | 26 |
Sam Houston State | 34 | 41 | 42 | 14 |
Princeton | 110 | 156 | 109 | 130 |
I hope Arizona gets out of this regional, so Stingray can ask Greg Byrne "WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO, BROTHER?!?!"
Coral Gables
Team | RPI | Boyd's World | NPI | ELO |
Miami | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 |
Florida Atlantic | 27 | 26 | 23 | 41 |
Long Beach State | 52 | 36 | 57 | 45 |
Stetson | 148 | 170 | 159 | 110 |
FAU wound up actually being very good.
Predicted Upsets
RPI: RPI is going chalk, which isn't surprising since the selection committee uses RPI.
Boyd's World: Only Arizona, although a few were 50-50.
NPI: Bryant, Coastal Carolina, and Southern Miss.
ELO: Same as NPI.
Myself: Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss.