Advanced Stats Regional Predictions

Arguably the most entertaining weekend of the season in college baseball begins tomorrow.  Fans all over the county will define their favorite team's season based on the next 2-4 games, which is a little insane considering how often upsets happen in baseball.  Anyway, I've listed which teams should win their regionals based on the ranking systems that exist.  I'm skeptical of most of them since the people who make these ranking systems don't share how they are calculated.  That being said, we can make fun of them for being wrong or be impressed if they do well, so we might as well look at what they predict.  It's not like I've watched enough Southeast Missouri State baseball to have an informed opinion on them anyway.

Thanks to a user on college baseball reddit, we have the average RPI of each team in a regional.  It is not encouraging.  I also looked up all the ranking systems on warrennolan.com.  I have each regional listed below.

Starkville

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
Mississippi State	11	8	8	8	9
Cal-State Fullerton	42	25	62	49	45
Louisiana Tech	31	27	33	17	27
Southeast Missouri State	54	71	20	46	48
Average System Rank	35	33	31	30	32

MSU is the best team in this regional, but there isn't an easy opponent in this regional.  These rankings don't think Cal-State Fullerton is a very strong 2 seed, but they think La Tech should be a two seed, and SE Missouri State could be a 3 seed.  It will be interesting to see who starts against SE Missouri State tomorrow.

To briefly preview the regional, Cal-State Fullerton's lineup is not intimidating.  However, they have extremely good pitching.  Connor Seabold is striking out 13 batters for every one he walks, so hopefully he pitches against somebody else.  La Tech has a balanced lineup and a good bullpen, but their starting pitching looks vulnerable.  SE Missouri State's lineup looks good, but their strength of schedule is bad, so I'm not sure how good the pitchers are that they have faced.  Outfielder Chris Osborne is their best hitter.  He has a lot of power, but does strike out a lot.  Joey Lucchesi is by far their best starting pitcher.  MSU should win this regional, but it is going to be difficult, especially if teams save their best starting pitchers for MSU.

Gainesville

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
Florida	1	2	4	5	3
Georgia Tech	20	32	40	51	36
Connecticut	51	67	49	27	49
Bethune-Cookman	163	187	146	82	145
Average System Rank	59	72	60	41	58

This isn't a bad regional, except for Bethune-Cookman.  They are an example of why I don't like conference tournament champions getting automatic bids to regionals.  They went 29-25 in one of the worst conferences in Division I.  Maybe Georgia Tech makes this regional interesting.

Baton Rouge

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
LSU	7	10	13	4	9
Rice	23	33	61	35	38
Southeastern Louisiana	40	42	22	40	36
Utah Valley State	129	94	73	42	56
Average System Rank	50	45	42	30	35

This is one of the more competitive regionals.  It is sort of similar to MSU's in that there isn't a specific team that looks like a good upset pick, but no team should be taken lightly.

College Station

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
Texas A&M	4	3	5	2	4
Minnesota	50	56	35	84	56
Wake Forest	25	48	71	38	46
Binghamton	105	172	102	58	58
Average System Ranking	46	70	43	46	41

Texas A&M is my pick to win the national championship, and they should have little trouble winning this regional.

Nashville

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
Vanderbilt	9	6	16	11	11
UC Santa Barbara	24	21	41	61	37
Washington	55	34	74	64	57
Xavier	79	122	117	37	89
Average System Ranking	42	46	62	43	49

Unfortunately, the ranking systems project the whistling Vandy fan to advance to Super Regionals.  Prepare the mute button on your remotes.

Columbia

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
South Carolina	8	11	15	13	12
UNC Wilmington	33	60	37	57	47
Duke	26	45	58	26	39
Rhode Island	111	160	101	86	115
Average System Ranking	45	69	53	46	53

This is the easiest regional in the SEC, unless the Gainesville one is the easiest.

Oxford

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO	Average Team Rank
Mississippi	5	7	14	9	9
Tulane	29	31	39	39	35
Boston College	39	55	63	32	47
Utah	93	78	139	67	94
Average System Ranking	42	33	64	37	46

That is all the regionals that are hosted by an SEC team.  I am going to cut out the average ranks the rest of the way because it is time consuming.

Tallahasee

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Florida State	13	14	26	22
Southern Mississippi	19	15	25	19
South Alabama	41	43	43	75
Alabama State	158	145	31	28

This is an interesting regional.  Southern Miss has as good a chance as any team of getting an upset.  Why do two of these ranking systems like Alabama State so much?

Raleigh

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
North Carolina State	10	16	27	36
Coastal Carolina	12	18	9	7
Saint Mary's	57	44	66	63
Navy	150	140	34	59

Be terrified of Coastal Carolina, Wolfpack.  Also, Preston Palmeiro is hitting .326, with an on base percentage of .401 and slugging percentage of .519.

Lubbock

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Texas Tech	14	9	7	21
Dallas Baptist	22	22	19	25
New Mexico	49	40	38	52
Fairfield	183	192	131	80

Charlottesville

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Virginia	17	23	29	18
Bryant	28	54	1	12
East Carolina	36	53	46	92
William and Mary	97	143	119	113

There is not a typo in the table above; Bryant is the best team in the nation according to Nolan Power Index.  Interestingly, they are also named the Bulldogs.  Get ready to shock the world, Bryant.  I will be watching to see what the hype is all about.

Fort Worth

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
TCU	16	5	6	16
Arizona State	43	30	60	54
Gonzaga	30	24	17	44
Oral Roberts	64	77	48	48

The three and four seeds in this regional are quite good, which bodes well for Texas A&M.  The winner of the College Station regional plays the winner of this regional.

Louisville

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Louisville	2	1	2	1
Ohio State	35	37	28	10
Wright State	44	39	10	20
Western Michigan	215	225	221	167

A Western Michigan first round win would be the upset of the century (an overstatement, maybe).  It is safe to say these rankings like Louisville.  Hopefully for Ohio State, their starting pitching is as stacked as their group of quarterbacks.  Also, I need to give a shout out to Western Michigan going 22-32 and making it to the regionals.  The winner of this regional gets the winner in Nashville.

Clemson

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Clemson	6	12	11	6
Oklahoma State	32	28	32	47
Nebraska	48	46	52	30
Western Carolina	103	132	112	95

Lafayette

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Louisiana Lafayette	15	17	18	15
Arizona	21	13	36	26
Sam Houston State	34	41	42	14
Princeton	110	156	109	130

I hope Arizona gets out of this regional, so Stingray can ask Greg Byrne "WHAT ARE YOU GOING TO DO, BROTHER?!?!"

Coral Gables

Team	RPI	Boyd's World	NPI	ELO
Miami	3	4	3	3
Florida Atlantic	27	26	23	41
Long Beach State	52	36	57	45
Stetson	148	170	159	110

FAU wound up actually being very good.

Predicted Upsets

RPI: RPI is going chalk, which isn't surprising since the selection committee uses RPI.

Boyd's World: Only Arizona, although a few were 50-50.

NPI: Bryant, Coastal Carolina, and Southern Miss.

ELO: Same as NPI.

Myself: Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss.