Gamblin' Man -- Week 3 College Football Gambling Picks

But I got to ramble (ramblin' man)
Oh I got to gamble (gamblin' man)
Got to got to ramble (ramblin' man)
I was born a ramblin' gamblin' man

It's probably not ideal to start off this post by admitting that I'm not really a gambler.  The closest thing I've ever placed to a bet was $20 on whether or not a buddy could drink a gallon of whole milk in an hour and keep it down (he couldn't).  However, I have taken an interest as of late in the lines associated with college football games.  Who's favored, what's the over/under, how are the betters pushing the line -- these are all things I know nothing about.  BUT, because I had a few minutes, and because until you all tell me different I'll just assume you're all degenerate gamblers, here are the teams I am picking this week.

[lines via Bovada]

(16) UCLA at (23) Nebraska

Betting Line: Nebraska -4.5

How I'd bet: I like UCLA here.  Quick: name the last time Nebraska won a big game that they were supposed to TOO LATE TIME IS UP.  UCLA seems to be figuring out how to rebuild itself under new king butthead coach Jim Mora Jr.  I like UCLA to come in and beat the spread, and the Huskers in Lincoln.

(7) Louisville at Kentucky

Betting Line: Louisville -14

How I'd bet:  Are you serious?  Somebody might as well have just renamed this line "free money", because that's line is ridiculously low.  Kentucky is bad, and sure this is a rivalry game but come on, have vegas bookmakers watched Teddy Bridgewater play this year?  Louisville covers easily, maybe even by double or more.

(1) Alabama at (6) Texas A&M

Betting Line: Alabama -8

How I'd bet: Okay so we're just over a touchdown here with Alabama favored, so the line presents a dilemma.  Still, am I the only one out there who thinks it's going to be extremely tough for Texas A&M to go back to back against Alabama?  I know it's at Kyle Field, and I know A&M is again loaded, but you can't tell me that Saban hasn't been plotting his revenge Emily Thorn style (YES THAT IS A GIRL SHOW REFERENCE.  SHUT UP; MY WIFE WATCHES IT).  I'm taking the number one team in the country, Alabama, to go into College Station, win, and cover on Saturday.

Tennessee at (2) Oregon

Betting Line: Oregon -28

How I'd bet:  Sure, Tennessee is going to get much better than they were last year, but it hasn't happened yet.  28 is a biiiiig line, but Oregon is a tough place to play, and that offense could score 28 points in about 52 seconds.  Tennessee secondary is just a big sign that says "now hiring", and Marcus Marriota knows it.  Oregon covers here, but barely (barely being relative).

Vanderbilt at (13) South Carolina

Betting Line: South Carolina -14

How I'd bet: Vandy played Ole Miss well in the season opener two weeks ago, but I'm not convinced that they're ready to hang in an SEC road game.  I'll take South Carolina to cover the 14 easily.

(25) Ole Miss at Texas

Betting Line: Texas -2.5

How I'd bet:  This line, along with the Bama-A&M and MSU-Auburn lines are probably the three most difficult to pick of all the ones that I looked at this week.  My gut tells me Ole Miss is the sure thing here -- Texas was ravaged on the ground last week by BYU, and Ole Miss has a strong option game as well.  But then I think about the times Ole Miss -- like State has suffered so many times itself -- has gone into what seems to be a sure thing only to come out with a letdown.  Texas is a mess, but Ole Miss feels like TOO easy of a pick here.  I'll take Texas to cover and to win.

Mississippi State at Auburn

Betting Line: Auburn -6

How I'd bet: I'm really torn here between my homer-tendencies and my belief that picking SEC road teams is a crapshoot.  These two teams really are even to me, with Auburn getting the understood slight edge for being at home.  You know what, screw it.  I'm embracing my homer side, and throwing all logic and reason to the win.  Even though this will not be the only thing that keeps me from a perfect record in my first week, I'll take MSU to beat the spread and win the game on the plains.

[NOTE: you should probably not take any advice from what you just read above]